Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Electability and Analyzing the Votes

Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary last night.

Barack Obama won the North Carolina primary last night.

Clinton's margin of victory in Indiana: 23,000 votes, 2% of the electorate in that state.

Obama's margin of victory in North Carolina: 235,000 votes, 14% of the electorate in that state.

But here is the key point: No Democrat will win Indiana's 11 electoral votes in November. It just is not going to happen. John McCain can put those votes into his pocket without a worry or a second thought. While it is unlikely that a Democrat will win North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, it is still possible that a Democrat can compete with McCain there. And even if the eventual Democratic nominee does not win North Carolina, they can still benefit extensively by forcing McCain to commit resources to the state.

I said it before, and I will say it again: Clinton wins Democratic votes where Democratic votes do not matter (like rural Virginia and now Indiana). Obama wins Democratic votes where they can make a difference (like possibly breaking the solid south, including Virginia as a whole and North Carolina).

Who do YOU think is more "electable"?